<pre>ACUS11 KWNS 091955 SWOMCD
Mesoscale Discussion 1268 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Thu Aug 09 2018
Areas affected…Southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 091955Z – 092100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A band of storms developing across northern portions of the discussion area will pose an isolated hail/wind threat over the next several hours. A WW is not anticipated for this activity.
DISCUSSION…A broken band of storms continues to develop along a front located from just north of Lone Rock, WI to Milwaukee, WI at this time. These storms are in a modestly sheared, yet strongly unstable environment characterized by 20-25 kts of deep shear and 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE, respectively. Given the initial linear organization with these cells, some southward propagation of the activity is expected with time especially as cold pools mature beneath ongoing storms. High-resolution model guidance further supports this notion, with storms potentially reaching northeastern Illinois by the 22-23Z timeframe. A risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and hail will exist with the strongest activity, although this threat should remain isolated enough to preclude a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.
..Cook.. 08/09/2018
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LOT…MKX…DVN…ARX…
LAT…LON 43449056 43619001 43408887 43048780 42438684 42168667
41818681 41528765 41748873 42439015 42869065 43449056 </pre>
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