<pre>ACUS11 KWNS 290005 SWOMCD
Mesoscale Discussion 1384 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 PM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018
Areas affected…Northern Illinois…far southern Wisconsin and far northwest Indiana
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 290005Z – 290100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed downstream of severe thunderstorm watch 357. The primary threat will be damaging winds from a line of storms moving toward the area.
DISCUSSION…A well organized bowing segment in east central Iowa has recently produced winds of 83 mph in Iowa City, Iowa. This bow will move through Davenport in the next 30 minutes and then continue east across northern Illinois. This area had been stabilized by earlier convection, but this area has recovered somewhat over the past few hours. Therefore, there is likely enough instability to support a continued wind damage threat from this bowing segment, albeit likely less intense than it has been in eastern Iowa where the thermodynamic environment is more favorable. South of the apex of this bow, the organized severe wind threat will likely be less, but additional storm development in a highly unstable airmass will support at least some threat of large hail and damaging winds. The low-level jet is starting to strengthen per regional VWP sites which will elongate the low-level hodograph and may briefly increase the tornado threat, especially north of the apex of the bow. However, the primary threat is expected to remain damaging straight line winds.
..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/29/2018
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LOT…ILX…MKX…DVN…
LAT…LON 42828936 42868878 42828798 42708759 42438729 41968705
41588708 40968725 40738757 40598807 40538848 40548911 40578979 40779008 41009030 41349053 41919053 42418998 42828936 </pre>
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