<pre>ACUS11 KWNS 052356 SWOMCD
Mesoscale Discussion 0070 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0556 PM CST Tue Feb 05 2019
Areas affected…Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois
Concerning…Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 052356Z – 060600Z
SUMMARY…Freezing rain and sleet are expected to continue moving northeast across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois through the evening. Some snow may mix in to parts of southern Wisconsin.
DISCUSSION…Winter mixed precipitation will continue across portions of the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region through the evening. Precipitation is moving northeast with a region of lift stretching southwest to northeast from northern Missouri into northern Michigan. Dual-pol radar data from KDVN, KMKX, and KLOT indicate a mix between freezing rain and sleet with a mix/range of correlation coefficient values and bright banding across northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin. Warm air advection with isentropic up-glide is fueling the winter mixed precipitation that will be moderate to heavy at times. The height of the warm nose varies from 750 mb to 850 mb from north to south, which explains the gradient of freezing rain to sleet/snow mix from northern Illinois to southern Wisconsin. Additionally, steepening mid-level lapse rates and stronger forcing/lift associated with an upper-level shortwave trough is likely to produce lightning and CG lightning has already been observed in eastern Iowa/northwest Illinois.
..Nauslar/Edwards.. 02/05/2019
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LOT…ILX…MKX…DVN…
LAT…LON 41598741 41118794 40818860 40678905 41028939 41888963
42738951 43088938 43308937 43508904 43488860 43458841 43448777 43328753 43088737 42788721 42448714 42188718 41888730 41598741 </pre>
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