<pre>ACUS11 KWNS 021931
SWOMCD
Mesoscale Discussion 1343
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2019
Areas affected...southern and eastern Wisconsin...northern
Illinois...northern Indiana...and southern Lower Michigan
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 021931Z - 022100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to intensify and expand in coverage
across the discussion area, and a risk of isolated damaging wind and
hail will accompany stronger storms. A WW issuance is not
anticipated at this time.
DISCUSSION...Recent thunderstorm development has been concentrated
in a couple of areas - one over northeastern Illinois/northwestern
Indiana and another between MKE and OSH in Wisconsin. These storms
are in an uncapped thermodynamic environment, with subtle low-level
confluence and lift associated with an approaching shortwave trough
over southwestern Wisconsin encouraging development. Strong
instability (greater than 3000 J/kg MUCAPE) will continue to support
additional storm development along with a risk of isolated damaging
wind gusts and hail, though storms should be mostly outflow-dominant
given weak low-level and deep shear. The loosely organized nature
of the convection and lack of deep shear should keep the severe
threat isolated through the remainder of the afternoon. Thus, a WW
issuance is not anticipated.
..Cook/Grams.. 07/02/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 43188967 42369016 41519041 40889023 40859021 40578893
40538727 40628556 41118483 41978449 42738474 43108541
43248625 43518786 43618879 43438940 43188967 </pre>
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