<pre>ACUS11 KWNS 272318
SWOMCD
Mesoscale Discussion 1278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019
Areas affected...eastern Wisconsin...northeast Illinois...southwest
Michigan...northwest Indiana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455...
Valid 272317Z - 280115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across eastern portions of
WW455 in far eastern Wisconsin and northeast Illinois with severe
wind as the primary threat. Strong/severe storms may move out of the
watch across portions of eastern Lake Michigan, southwest Michigan,
northeast Illinois, and northwest Indiana.
DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms capable of producing severe
wind continues to move eastward across far eastern Wisconsin and
northeast Illinois. Norther portions of the line are beginning to
weaken as storms encounter weaker instability while the southern
portion continues to develop new storms amid MLCAPE of 1500-2000
J/kg. These storms will likely continue until sunset taking
advantage of the insolation driven instability and steep low-level
lapse rates in the area.
The low-level jet will be stronger farther west, which will limit
the ability for the storms to continue into the evening across this
area. However, the southern part of the line will likely continue to
be strong/severe across southern Lake Michigan and northeast
Illinois and may move into portions of southwest Michigan and
northwest Indiana later this evening. Convective trends will
continued to be monitored for a possible watch expansion/extension
or if a new watch may be needed.
..Nauslar/Guyer.. 06/27/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 42088631 41088698 40988746 41128826 41458938 41548956
41698946 41918910 42248866 42638827 43448802 44258775
44088727 43448668 42698641 42088631 </pre>
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