<pre>ACUS11 KWNS 012221
SWOMCD
Mesoscale Discussion 0933
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2019
Areas affected...Northern Illinois...Northwest Indiana and far
southeast Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 305...
Valid 012221Z - 012315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 305
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds continues in
severe thunderstorm watch 305.
DISCUSSION...The cluster of storms in southeast Wisconsin has now
mostly moved over the cool waters of Lake Michigan which should
limit the severe threat while over the lake. In the wake of this
convection, the boundary layer is stable in southeast Wisconsin
should limit any additional severe weather threat. Farther south,
rigorous updraft development has occurred across northern Illinois
in an environment with MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg and deep
layer shear around 25 to 30 knots (per LOT VWP). This combination of
instability and shear will continue to support multicell storm mode
with a hail threat initially (Given the very steep mid-level lapse
rates of 8.4 C/km per DVN 12Z RAOB). As storms eventually congeal,
expect the damaging wind threat to increase.
Storms have started to develop south of the current watch which may
necessitate a local extension of WW305 across the LOT CWA. Trends
will continue to be monitored to determine whether this will be
necessary.
..Bentley/Thompson.. 06/01/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 42458965 42818884 42908779 42618719 42068693 41368694
40908708 40658823 41098900 41298967 41638987 42458965 </pre>
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