<pre>ACUS11 KWNS 221748
SWOMCD
Mesoscale Discussion 0967
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020
Areas affected...much of Illinois and surrounding areas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 221748Z - 222015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will increase in number through the afternoon, with
localized damaging wind gusts or marginally severe hail.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low over eastern IA, ahead of
the midlevel trough. Heating continues over much of the region, with
the strongest instability south of a diffuse temperature gradient
from northern into central IL and eastern MO.
Winds aloft are not particularly strong, but ample instability,
increasing lift and no convective inhibition should lead to
scattered and possibly numerous storms throughout the rest of the
afternoon. Precipitable water in excess of 1.50" along with
steepening lapse rates should support localized severe downbursts,
along with marginally severe hail in the strongest cores. Storms
will be focused along the diffuse front over IL, and may increase
along the cold front developing later today out of IA and MO.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 06/22/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 39308986 39189100 39289163 40009175 41568988 42438847
42508755 42398709 42118676 41088684 40458739 39698865
39308986 </pre>
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