<pre>ACUS11 KWNS 051726
SWOMCD
Mesoscale Discussion 0842
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020
Areas affected...portions of the Great Lakes
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 051726Z - 051900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of severe storms capable of severe wind and
occasional large hail will be possible across the Great Lakes this
afternoon and evening. Limited coverage suggests a watch is not
necessary.
DISCUSSION...17z Surface analysis shows a diffuse frontal zone
across portions of Iowa into southern Wisconsin. To the south, a
remnant MCV was noted across eastern Iowa and western Illinois.
Visible satellite data shows cumulus is beginning to deepen along
the front to the north of the MCV. Warm and moist surface conditions
are supporting MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg across the region as
indicated by SPC mesoanalysis. Continued heating and the approach of
a shortwave trough will likely continue to support moderate
destabilization this afternoon. Deep-layer shear is expected to
remain somewhat displaced to the north, behind the frontal boundary,
but 25-30 kts of effective shear may support organized updrafts in
the form of small clusters or bowing segments. High DCAPE, greater
than 1000 J/kg, will likely support a threat of damaging wind gusts
with the stronger clusters of storms this afternoon and evening.
some occasional large hail will also be possible, though the threat
seems limited given the propensity for competing updrafts in the
relatively weak shear environment. A couple of severe storms are
likely to develop through the afternoon hours, but limited coverage
likely precludes the need for a watch.
..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/05/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41318743 41228906 41358988 41569044 42139076 42739018
42998935 43078865 42998598 42368531 41808521 41398602
41348709 41318743 </pre>
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