<pre>ACUS11 KWNS 261739
SWOMCD
Mesoscale Discussion 1006
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020
Areas affected...Northeastern Iowa...southeastern
Minnesota...southern Wisconsin...northern Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 261738Z - 261945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storm coverage and intensity should slowly increase this
afternoon as ares of cloud breaks allow for surface-based
destabilization. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
primary threats. A tornado or two will be possible, primarily in
southern WI/northern IL, as the airmass tries to destabilize near an
outflow boundary. A WW will likely be needed by 18-19Z.
DISCUSSION...A storm has recently initiated along the MN/IA border
roughly where an MCV is interacting with a differential heating
zone. Recent KDMX and KDVN VAD data shows around 50 kts of flow at 6
km associated with the MCV. Heating of a moist airmass--dewpoints
generally in the low 70s--may eventually support MLCAPE in the
neighborhood of 2000 J/kg. Storm coverage is expected to increase
this afternoon both near the MCV and along the differential heating
zone/outflow boundary into northern IL. A 17Z sounding at GRB
sampled 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates which, given modest effective
shear, should support organized convection capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. The most intense storms are likely near and
south of the outflow this afternoon. Storms farther north are likely
to be less severe given the amount of cloud cover limiting
destabilization. Some modest low-level hodograph size is expected
near the outflow boundary. Should the airmass recover more this
afternoon, the threat for a tornado or two would exist primarily in
southern WI and northern IL. Initial convection will tend to grow
upscale with time along with further linear development along the
advancing cold front to the west. A WW will likely be needed by
18-19Z.
..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/26/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 41489148 41889222 42899301 43649299 44029200 44048951
43818820 43248774 42898775 41868791 41568811 41108987
41489148 </pre>
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