<pre>ACUS11 KWNS 162133
SWOMCD
Mesoscale Discussion 1761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019
Areas affected...far eastern Wisconsin and northeast Illinois into
western Michigan
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 162132Z - 170000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop
across far eastern Wisconsin and northeast Illinois in the next hour
or two and may continue into western Lower Michigan. A few of these
storms may become capable of severe wind/hail.
DISCUSSION...Multiple mid-level shortwave troughs are moving over
the Great Lakes region today with one exiting Lower Michigan and
another over Wisconsin/northern Illinois currently. A moist airmass
with ample daytime heating has steepened low-level lapse rates and
begun to breach convective temperatures across northeast Illinois
and eastern Wisconsin. An agitated Cu field is present across this
area and a few storms are now evident per KMKX/KGRB. Large-scale
forcing for ascent is rather weak at the moment with the best
700-500 mb vertical motion present farther north over Lake Superior
per mesoanalysis. As such, storms may struggle to intensify, but
MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/Kg and effective bulk shear of 40-50 knots may
support a few strong to severe storms this evening.
Storms may struggle to maintain their intensity as they cross Lake
Michigan, but some recent CAMs guidance suggest storms reintensify
over western Lower Michigan. Continued low-level moisture advection
and daytime heating over western Lower Michigan as well as some
forcing for large-scale ascent moving eastward with time support
these CAMS solutions. However, given the marginal severe threat and
uncertainty regarding severe storm coverage, a watch issuance is
unlikely.
..Nauslar/Guyer.. 08/16/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...
LAT...LON 42538866 43578843 44598836 45068776 45138682 44768607
43968572 42768568 41988576 41698617 41418706 41308752
41388829 41428882 42538866 </pre>
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