<pre>ACUS11 KWNS 011637 SWOMCD
Mesoscale Discussion 0973 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sun Jul 01 2018
Areas affected…Southern and Eastern Wisconsin…Northern Illinois…and Southern Upper Michigan.
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 011637Z – 011800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…A few storms have formed west of Green Bay. Additional storms are expected to form in the next hour or two along and ahead of a cold front. These storms will pose a primary threat of damaging winds, however, a tornado or two is also possible.
DISCUSSION…Storms have started to form west of Green Bay. While these storms will likely only pose a marginal severe threat as they move into an increasingly stable airmass, additional storm development is expected in the next hour or two along the cold front. Low-level moisture advection combined with surface heating in the relatively cloud free airmass in southern Wisconsin will lead to additional destabilization ahead of these developing storms. MLCAPE is already over 2500 J/kg in southern Wisconsin with this buoyancy expected across much of eastern Wisconsin within the next few hours. MLCAPE of 500 to 1000 J/kg is expected to advect as far north as at least southern Upper Michigan. Effective shear of 40 to 50 knots per the latest RAP mesoanalysis combined with the expected moderate to strong instability will provide an environment favorable for severe storms this afternoon. Current ARX and GRB VWP 1 km winds of 30 to 35 knots with strengthening flow expected through the day, will support a damaging wind threat, however, a greater tornado threat will exist in areas with backed surface flow (currently in east central Wisconsin). Given the strong linear forcing, storms are expected to congeal into a squall line relatively quickly. While the linear nature may limit the overall tornado threat, embedded supercells in addition to any discrete storms that can form ahead of the line will likely pose a greater tornado concern.
..Bentley/Hart.. 07/01/2018
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MQT…GRB…LOT…MKX…DVN…DLH…ARX…
LAT…LON 46278966 45279030 43769115 43339121 42809109 42569076
42339020 42218906 42298803 42468761 43598747 44878707 45428680 45898687 46388742 46718852 46278966 </pre>
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