<pre>ACUS11 KWNS 032055
SWOMCD
Mesoscale Discussion 1922
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019
Areas affected...Northern/Central IL...Northwest/Central IN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 032054Z - 032300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Increased thunderstorm activity is anticipated across the
region over the next few hours. Some severe storms are possible.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals a somewhat complex
pattern across northern/central IL and northwest/north-central IN.
Two outflow boundaries are apparent. One of these boundaries extends
from about 35 mi north-northeast of LAF southeastward to the central
IN/OH border. The other extends from near PPQ (in far west-central
IL) northeastward into northwest IN, where it intersects the first
outflow boundary mentioned. Air mass in the vicinity of these
boundaries has not fully destabilized, with at least minimal
convective inhibition still in place. Even so, increasing forcing
for ascent is anticipated as a strong shortwave trough approaches.
This strong forcing is apparent in the banded structure of the cloud
features and recent radar signatures across northeast IL as well as
storm development across west-central IN.
Expectation is for the increased forcing for ascent, both attendant
to the shortwave trough and along the cold front (which remains
farther west from southern WI southwestward across IA), to
eventually result in thunderstorm development across
northern/central IL. Given the favorable environment, some severe
storms are possible.
The ongoing elevated activity is expected to persist across central
IN before then moving into the more stable air mass to the north of
the outflow boundary across northeast IN/northwest OH. Isolated hail
and/or a strong wind gusts are possible with this storm.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 09/03/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 42308957 42438807 41678759 41458635 40728543 39498611
39398905 40329036 42308957 </pre>
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