<pre>ACUS11 KWNS 140740 SWOMCD
Mesoscale Discussion 0406 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Areas affected…East-central IA…Southern WI…Northern IL…Southwest Lower MI…Far northern IN
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 140740Z – 140945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Some isolated hail is possible over the region during the next several hours.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorm coverage over the region has increased significantly during the past hour as a strengthening low-level jet encourages warm-air advection across the frontal zone. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sampled well by the 00Z DVN and ILX soundings, support moderate elevated instability and recent mesoanalysis suggests MUCAPE across much of the area is over 1500 J/kg. Displacement from the more well-defined EML results in quickly decreasing instability (from west to east) across Lower MI.
The lack of stronger flow aloft will preclude anything but brief thunderstorm organization with a generally multicell mode expected to persist. Unidirectional westerly flow aloft will likely result in occasional forward propagation but the elevated character of the storms and stable low levels should preclude any gusty winds. Isolated hail is possible, particularly as a result of cell mergers and resulting updraft intensification. Isolated and marginal nature of the threat will preclude the need for a watch.
..Mosier/Edwards.. 05/14/2018
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…IWX…GRR…LOT…MKX…DVN…ARX…
LAT…LON 42669120 43138931 42758574 41308520 41848883 42019095
42669120 </pre>
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