<pre>ACUS11 KWNS 202017 SWOMCD
Mesoscale Discussion 1484 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018
Areas affected…Portions of southern Michigan…northern Indiana…northern Illinois…and northwestern Ohio.
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 202016Z – 202145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorms have developed in the last few hours that will pose the threat for isolated severe wind gusts and marginally-severe hail, but a Watch is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION…Scattered thunderstorms have developed along a warm front, with the storms most concentrated over the eastern portion of the area. Strong heating and near-surface dewpoints in the mid-60s to near 70 is supporting MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg from east to west over the area. The storms are near the southern fringe of stronger mid-level flow, and have therefore evolved within enough deep-layer shear to support a mixed mode of multicell/supercell structures. A few damaging wind gusts are possible with these storms given the steep low-level lapse rates, but the severe wind threat should be limited by rather weak low-level wind fields, especially over the eastern portion of the area. Although some transient rotation may support development of marginally-severe hail, very warm mid-level temperatures should keep the severe hail threat to a minimum. The above limiting factors should prevent the need for a Watch in this area in the next few hours.
..Coniglio/Hart.. 09/20/2018
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…CLE…DTX…IWX…GRR…LOT…DVN…
LAT…LON 41998420 41458386 41198446 41198615 41338797 41478932
41408998 41829032 42318991 42428903 42458746 42508572 42478467 41998420 </pre>
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