<pre>195
ACUS11 KWNS 021925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021925
022130-
Mesoscale Discussion 1080
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020
Areas affected...Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...southeastern
Colorado...southwestern Kansas...and far northeastern New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 021925Z - 022130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible with cells
across the discussion area. This threat should remain sparse enough
to preclude a WW issuance, however.
DISCUSSION...Deepening convection was observed over the past hour or
so in a couple of regimes - one within an axis of deeply mixed,
unstable air extending from southeastern Colorado into the Amarillo
area and a second near a remnant outflow roughly 35 miles
south-southwest of Dodge City. These storms were in an environment
characterized by steep low- and mid-level lapse rates (ranging from
9+ C/km in western portions of the discussion area to around 7.5-8
C/km farther east). Shear values are poor, however, owing to meager
flow throughout the troposphere as the region resides well south of
any mid/upper jet structure. Nevertheless, very weak/subtle surface
heating combined with the airmass reaching convective temp over a
broad area (as indicated by point forecast soundings) both indicate
that convection should continue to deepen through the afternoon,
resulting in weakly organized convection with occasional strong to
severe downbursts. One potential limiting factor for more
widespread convective development, however, is the gradually
strengthening mid/upper ridge across the region, which has
contributed to gradual height rises throughout the morning.
The isolated nature of the severe threat with this activity should
preclude a WW issuance.
..Cook/Hart.. 07/02/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...</pre>
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