<pre>ACUS11 KWNS 072007
SWOMCD
Mesoscale Discussion 0295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020
Areas affected...eastern WI...northern IL/IN and western MI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 072006Z - 072200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated elevated thunderstorms may produce large hail
across eastern WI near Green Bay over the next hour. Additional
storms are expected to develop further south over the next couple of
hours, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts, large hail and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading eastward across
southern Lower Michigan/northern Indiana this evening.
DISCUSSION...Isolated elevated thunderstorms have developed north of
the warm front. Very steep midlevel lapse rates and strong shear
will support large hail potential in this elevated convection.
Further south, strong warm advection is resulting in modest
increases in boundary layer moisture south of the warm front, with
dewpoints mainly in the mid-50s to near 60 F south of the boundary.
Very steep lapse rates atop a weakening capping inversion and strong
vertical shear will favor semi-discrete cells capable of large hail
initially. Strong heating into the low and mid 70s is aiding in
rapid erosion of this cap. As a result, expect isolated to
widely-scattered surface-based thunderstorm development over the
next couple of hours across southeast WI. In addition to damaging
wind and large hail, a couple of tornadoes are possible, especially
in the vicinity of the warm front where low level shear is enhanced.
With time and as frontal forcing increases this evening in
conjunction with a low level jet, convection will likely grow
upscale into one or more bowing segments as storms shift east over
Lake Michigan and into southern Lower Michigan toward 00z. This will
increase potential for damaging winds across parts of southern Lower
Michigan into northern Indiana this evening.
..Leitman/Hart.. 04/07/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...
LAT...LON 41578735 41738863 42138917 42478935 42818943 43458945
43918923 44518859 44778802 44778715 44598610 44348553
43788472 43398446 42868438 42398447 42098466 41718515
41558596 41578735 </pre>
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