<pre>ACUS11 KWNS 072208
SWOMCD
Mesoscale Discussion 0297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020
Areas affected...Parts of east central Iowa...southern Wisconsin and
northern Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 072207Z - 072330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm Watch 81 may be locally extended
westward across parts of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois,
with an additional watch issuance possible. Thunderstorms capable
of producing very large and damaging hail and strong wind gusts
appear increasingly possible through 6-8 PM CDT
DISCUSSION...Rapid new thunderstorm development is now underway
near/northeast of Dubuque IA. This is occurring along or just ahead
of a surface cold front, trailing an eastward migrating surface low
now near Milwaukee WI, as the leading edge of stronger mid-level
cooling weakens mid-level inhibition. This mid-level cooling is
forecast to overspread much of the remainder of northern Illinois
through 00-02Z, and may contribute to a continuing increase in
convective development and upscale growth. In the presence of
strong deep-layer shear, steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates
and CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, supercells and organized convection
capable of producing very large hail and strong wind gusts appear
increasingly likely through early evening.
..Kerr/Grams.. 04/07/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 42509094 42958984 43058783 41578763 40918923 40769075
41819121 42509094 </pre>
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