ACUS11 KWNS 212317
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO...CNTRL/NRN IL...NW INDIANA...FAR SWRN
MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 340...
VALID 212316Z - 220045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 340
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 340.
DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF NRN INDIANA AND FAR SWRN MI ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS WW 340 HAS LARGELY CONGEALED INTO
MULTIPLE QUASI-LINEAR STRUCTURES...WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM COU TO NORTH OF STL IN MISSOURI AND ACROSS
NRN IL...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE LAST HOUR. WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR DECREASES
WITH SWWD EXTENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS E-CNTRL MO/W-CNTRL IL
WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN ONGOING ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HRS...WITH
SOME THREAT POTENTIALLY WORKING INTO THE STL METRO BY 00Z.
ACROSS NRN IL...THE TSTM COMPLEX IS MOVING SEWD IN AN ENVIRONMENT
THAT IS LESS UNSTABLE COMPARED TO FURTHER SOUTH...BUT WITH STRONGER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS AS DEPICTED BY OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS
AND LOT VWP. WHILE THIS COMPLEX HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT IN THE LAST 30
MINUTES...SOME REJUVENATION IS POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
LAKE IN SWRN MO/NRN IND...WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM WW
ISSUANCE.
TSTMS ACROSS E-CNTRL IL HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST HOUR
AND DO NOT APPEAR TO POSE MUCH DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THREAT INTO W-CNTRL
INDIANA...GIVEN WEAKER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND DIFLUENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IN THIS AREA.
..DEAN.. 06/21/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...
EAX...
LAT...LON 39469278 39889201 40409121 41848948 42228905 42518794
42438662 41938596 41548595 41048620 40638647 40198687
39918717 39578771 39278842 38818939 38728987 38539043
38499111 38439180 38519218 38569247 39469278
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