ACUS11 KWNS 301828
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN...CENTRAL AND ERN IA/NWRN AND NRN
IL/SRN WI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 373...
VALID 301827Z - 302000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 373 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES...VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING SWATHS OF STRONG WINDS...SOME SIGNIFICANT
GUSTS POSSIBLE...PERSISTS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WW 373 /IN IOWA/.
THESE SVR THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
NEW WATCH LIKELY NEEDED EAST OF WW 373 BY 19Z.
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WRN PART OF WW 373 SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WIND SHIFT /SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NLY/.
DISCUSSION...COMPLEX STORM ORGANIZATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM
WEBSTER/BOONE COUNTIES TO ADAIR COUNTY MOVING ESEWD AT 40-45
KT...WITH AT LEAST ONE SUPERCELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE NEAR DSM.
ADDITIONAL STORM MERGERS HAVE OCCURRED IN HAMILTON/HARDIN AND STORY
COUNTIES. THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY
STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2500-4000 J PER KG/ WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 50-70 KT MAINTAINING STORM ORGANIZATION. SELY SURFACE
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THESE STORMS IS RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR FOR A TORNADO THREAT.
CURRENT EWD TO ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THE CENTRAL IA STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT WW 373 BY 19Z. AIR MASS RECOVERY
PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS ERN IA INTO NRN IL AND SRN WI GIVEN
LIMITED CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDS ESEWD FROM THE ONGOING CENTRAL IA
STORMS SUGGESTING A GENERAL ESEWD MOVEMENT MAY PERSIST.
..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 06/30/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...FSD...
OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 40519154 40719370 40599545 40589686 40759781 41049780
41889604 42479496 42679336 42649238 42738802 41918769
40508751 39858832 40519154
WWWW
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