ACUS11 KWNS 211741
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN IA...EXTREME SRN WI...NRN/WRN
IL...NERN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211741Z - 211945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 19Z.
DISCUSSION...ISOLD TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN IL AS OF 1730Z AS
DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATED CINH AND
RESULTED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTED A
NW-SE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN WI INTO NERN IL...AND A
SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM SWRN WI SWD ACROSS ERN IA AND
NERN MO. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF
THESE BOUNDARIES...AIDED BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT MCV
MOVING EWD ACROSS NERN IA. BY MID-AFTN MLCAPE OF 2500 TO LOCALLY
3500 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE...AND COMBINED WITH 30 - 35 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TSTMS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS WITH A LOCALLY ENHANCED SVR WIND
THREAT.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
19Z.
..BUNTING/HART.. 06/21/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40679192 42029113 42639020 42788909 42248827 41128828
39978940 39519122 39939202 40679192
WWWW
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