ACUS11 KWNS 302026
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN-ERN WI/NWRN IND AND SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 374...
VALID 302025Z - 302100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 374 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ALL SEVERE THREATS PERSIST ACROSS WW 374...WITH AN
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS TO SPREAD INTO THE
CHICAGO AND MILWAUKEE METRO AREAS BY 22-23Z /5-6 PM CDT/. A NEW WW
IS LIKELY TO THE EAST OF WW 374...WITH A PDS SEVERE TSTM WATCH
LIKELY. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS POSSIBLE NWD INTO ERN WI.
DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE ENVIRONMENT FROM FAR ERN IA EWD
THROUGH NRN IL...NWRN IND...AND SRN INTO ERN WI SHOWED VERY STRONG
DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 2500-4000 J PER KG/...WITH MLCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG IN ERN WI. THE BOWING LINE OF STORMS IN ERN IA WAS MOVING
EAST AT 50 KT AND WILL MOVE INTO THE CHI/MKE METRO AREAS BETWEEN
22-23Z. GIVEN RECENT WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 KT...REAR-INFLOW JET
ATTENDANT TO THIS BOW...AND VERY STRONG INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM...
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN LIKELY AS THE BOW PROGRESSES EWD.
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN SWRN WI AND STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS
SRN AND ERN WI SUGGESTS FURTHER STORM FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH EWD EXTENT. SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR FAVORS ORGANIZED STORMS WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
..PETERS.. 06/30/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...
ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 40369230 41149224 41459237 42209222 43069205 43889032
44208814 44148704 43248666 42378628 41318657 40518728
40438823 40358954 40138994 40039051 40369230
����
http://goo.gl/PMWkop
------------------------------------------------
(c) Copyleft 2014 WxNotify. All wrongs reserved.
