ACUS11 KWNS 251712
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1145
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI INTO NRN IL AND FAR NW IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251711Z - 251945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD OUT OF WI AND INTO IL. LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER SWRN WI NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE LOW AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE/MIX LOW CLOUDS SEWD TOWARD
SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH AN EXPANDING CU FIELD OVER NRN IL.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE NELY
SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY MAY AUGMENT THE HODOGRAPHS
ASSUMING THE AIR IMMEDIATELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY CAN
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THIS MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING A
SUPERCELL OR TWO SEWD ACROSS SRN WI INTO NRN IL. THE COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD FAVOR LARGE HAIL...WITH A LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUST ALWAYS POSSIBLE.
..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 06/25/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 43398966 43198938 42488855 42138762 41688718 41198723
40538758 40648847 41258920 42268991 42799029 43269043
43459026 43398966
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