ACUS11 KWNS 180559
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1055
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/S WI...FAR N IL...W LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 318...
VALID 180559Z - 180730Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 318
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...PER COORDINATION WITH WFO/S MKX/LOT...WW 318 HAS BEEN
REDEFINED NWD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WAA CORRIDOR ALONG/N OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT ARCING FROM FAR SE MN INTO FAR SW LOWER MI. WW
ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR A RISK OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL TO THE
N/E.
DISCUSSION...TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE BECOME CONFINED ACROSS CNTRL/S WI TO
S LK MI...ALONG/N OF AN ARCING WARM FRONT FROM NEAR RST TO MSN TO
AZO. ALTHOUGH A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL BUOYANCY
WILL RESIDE S OF THE FRONT...GREATER INHIBITION AND LACK OF
APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BEYOND WAA WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE
DEVELOPMENT SWD IN THE NEAR-TERM. FARTHER N...ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FOSTER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL
MOST PROMINENT IN INITIAL CELLULAR UPDRAFTS...GIVEN MODEST SPEED
SHEAR EVIDENT AOA 3 KM AGL IN GRB VWP DATA. WITH TIME...MANY OF
THESE CELLS SHOULD CONGLOMERATE...BUT THE RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS MAY
BE SUBDUED BY LACK OF ROBUST LLJ AND COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS
OVER MOST OF LOWER MI.
..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/18/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 44819040 44698857 44508673 44358595 44058518 43648479
43108468 42718492 42298601 41888735 42018865 42298978
42509052 43029087 43589100 44579076 44819040
WWWW
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