ACUS11 KWNS 300641
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1208
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LAKE MI...SW LOWER MI...NRN IL AND FAR SE WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370...
VALID 300641Z - 300745Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS STORMS MOVE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF WW 370. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF
THE THREAT...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...A
LOCAL WW EXTENSION IN AREA AND TIME MAY BE NEEDED TO CONTAIN THE
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD FROM NE MO INTO NRN IL AND SRN LAKE MI WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED BY RAP-V2
DATA IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE MCD AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS BEING FED BY A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND BY LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWPS AHEAD OF THE LINE FROM CHICAGO EWD
TO GRAND RAPIDS MI SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 3 KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...THE WIND-DAMAGE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED DUE TO THE NARROW CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY. WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD MAKE THE
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT MORE MARGINAL WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 06/30/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41388710 40928787 40758873 40918985 41369009 42788814
43548752 43728688 43368606 42668599 41388710
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