ACUS11 KWNS 180239
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IA / NRN IL / SRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 180238Z - 180415Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR STORMS AND ISOLD SEVERE IS INCREASING THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AT 0235Z SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF
STORMS EXTENDING IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION FROM FAR ERN IA AND
ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER. THE UPDRAFTS TO THE W OF LAKE MICH MAY BE
ORIGINATING IN A LAYER ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE DVN RAOB SHOWED
A WARM NOSE AT H75 AND IT MAY AT LEAST TEMPORALLY IF NOT LARGELY
INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT. NONETHELESS...A WARM
FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
OVER THE REGION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY 2000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE. MODERATE WLY FLOW ATOP SLY
SURFACE WINDS IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS.
THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL PROBABLY REMAIN OVER THE ERN IA/NRN
IL VICINITY AND FAVOR ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN MATURE/STRENGTHEN
WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS.
..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 06/18/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 43198854 42828745 41818726 41558799 41809080 42249084
42719078 43129024 43198854
WWWW
����
http://goo.gl/cHKjFQ
------------------------------------------------
(c) Copyleft 2014 WxNotify. All wrongs reserved.
