<pre>ACUS11 KWNS 022048 SWOMCD
Mesoscale Discussion 1413 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sun Sep 02 2018
Areas affected…Southern WI…Far Northern IL
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 022047Z – 022245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon. A watch is not currently anticipated but convective trends will be monitored.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase across the region as outflow from antecedent storms continues to push southeastward. This lift will be augmented by modest large scale forcing for ascent attendant to a shortwave trough progressing through southwesterly flow aloft into the area. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep but a moderate to strongly unstable airmass has still developed, largely a result of ample low-level moisture. The low to mid-level flow across the region is largely unidirectional but enough speed shear exists to support a few more organized storms. Marginally severe hail is possible within the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Storm interactions may also result in brief updrafts strong enough to produce some hail. A damaging wind gusts or two is also possible as a result of water-loaded downdrafts. Even so, overall severe coverage is expected to remain rather isolated, leading to lower watch probabilities.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 09/02/2018
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LOT…MKX…DVN…ARX…
LAT…LON 43189073 43598985 43888839 43408781 43008772 42158793
42108997 42499078 43189073 </pre>
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