ACUS11 KWNS 221600
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL TO NORTHERN INDIANA/LOWER
MI/FAR NORTHWEST OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 331...332...
VALID 221600Z - 221800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
331...332...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI AND NORTHERN IL INTO MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS MCS-RELATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL LIKELY TO
DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN INDIANA/LOWER MI/FAR NORTHWEST OH
THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED PROVIDED
MCS SUSTENANCE.
DISCUSSION...A WELL-ORGANIZED/FAST-MOVING QUASI-LINEAR MCS CONTINUES
TO STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI AND
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL IL AS OF 1045AM CDT/1545Z. A STRONG
DESCENDING REAR-INFLOW JET AND LINE-TRAILING COLD POOL/BUBBLE HIGH
REMAINS READILY EVIDENT IN REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP/SURFACE DATA ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI. AHEAD OF THE
QUASI-LINEAR MCS...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S F
ACROSS NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHEAST WI...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS NORTHERN IL HAVE TENDED TO VEER OVER TIME WITH SOME PROBABLE
RELATED WEAKENING OF LINE-RELATIVE INFLOW. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT
TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS /ALBEIT STILL VERY COLD AT
AROUND -75C/ WITH A MODEST WEAKENING OF SOME OF LINE-EMBEDDED
UPDRAFTS AS OF 1530Z. EVEN SO...THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THE MCS
SHOULD CONTINUE LINE-EMBEDDED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI AND ON THE SOUTHWEST-PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL IL.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD/BECOME
INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI LATE THIS MORNING
WITH DESTABILIZATION STEADILY OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AS OF LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. CONTINUED CELL
MERGERS AND DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION MAY LEAD TO A
PERSISTENCE/REINVIGORATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE MI...SUCH THAT
A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LOWER MI/NORTHERN INDIANA/FAR
NORTHWEST OH PENDING CONTINUED MCS SUSTENANCE.
..GUYER.. 06/22/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 43298869 43868573 43488379 41668413 40878617 41199026
41679035 42298879 43298869
����
http://goo.gl/hxS9MV
------------------------------------------------
(c) Copyleft 2015 WxNotify. All wrongs reserved.
