ACUS11 KWNS 082032
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0945
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/NERN IL...NWRN IND...AND FAR
SWRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 082032Z - 082200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/NERN IL...NWRN IND...AND
FAR SWRN LOWER MI...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. THE OVERALL
SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED/MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NRN
IL ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SFC BOUNDARY...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL HAVING BEEN RECEIVED OVER THE PAST HOUR IN LAKE COUNTY IL. SFC
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MCD AREA. 20Z RAP MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES
MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. THE VWP FROM THE KLOT RADAR SHOWS A
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WIND FIELD STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT...WITH 30 KT
OF WLY FLOW AROUND 6 KM. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAKER
COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE SW...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AN ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT IS
APPARENT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE MCD
AREA...WHICH INCLUDES THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. THE LIMITED/MARGINAL
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT TOO ISOLATED FOR
WW ISSUANCE...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY.
..GLEASON/HART.. 06/08/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 42448883 42468775 42468688 42318616 41988545 41258619
40638721 40288881 40828938 41949035 42439008 42448883
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