<pre>711 ACUS11 KWNS 270240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270240 270445-
Mesoscale Discussion 1730 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0840 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018
Areas affected…Portions of South Central Texas
Concerning…Tornado Watch 444…
Valid 270240Z – 270445Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 444 continues.
SUMMARY…A threat for all severe hazards continues in WW 444. Storms will be moving into an area of greater instability and wind fields that are supportive of low-level rotation. With time, storms may grow upscale into a line where embedded rotation will accompany a more widespread severe wind gust threat.
DISCUSSION…A line of storms from Kerr County Texas to near Laughlin AFB has continued to progress eastward. The 00Z DRT sounding shows 70+ kts of effective bulk shear with mid-level lapse rates of over 8 C/km. Storms on the northern end of the line have tended to congeal owing to deep-layer shear parallel to the initiating dryline. However, two cells near Laughlin AFB have been able to remain relatively discrete. A relative maxima in instability exists to the east of these storms with around 2500 J/kg in the objective analysis fields. Though the most enlarged low-level hodographs will exist to the northeast of WW 444, where the low-level jet will be strongest, KDFX and KEWX VAD data support 150-200 m2/s2 SRH. Tornadoes will be possible with these storms, particularly if any can remain discrete as they encounter better low-level moisture. Large hail is also possible given the lapse rates. With time, storms may grow upscale, but embedded rotation will still remain possible along with a more widespread severe wind gust threat.
..Wendt.. 12/27/2018
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…</pre>
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