ACUS11 KWNS 261622
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0783
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL/ERN WI/PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPPER MI AND
INTO NRN AND WRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 261622Z - 261815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO VERY GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON -- INCLUDING RISK FOR
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES. WW MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE
EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION -- MAINLY
OVER NRN WI AND INTO PORTIONS OF UPPER MI...AS WELL AS OVER MUCH OF
LOWER MI ATTM. SOME HEATING THROUGH THE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAS
RESULTED IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION...WITH UP TO 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
CAPE NOW INDICATED IN THE MOST CLOUD-FREE AREAS.
AS A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CENTERED CROSSING THE NRN MO/SRN IA VICINITY
CONTINUES SHIFTING...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THIS AREA. A BAND OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS SPREADING
NEWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN AND ERN IL ATTM...WITH A STRONGER STORM OR
TWO ALSO INDICATED AHEAD OF THIS BAND OVER S CENTRAL WI. WITH
VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT AHEAD OF THE BAND SUFFICIENT FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION /AND A FEW CELLS EXHIBITING VERY WEAK ROTATION PER
WSR-88D SRV/...EXPECT SEVERE/BRIEF TORNADO RISK TO
GRADUALLY/MODESTLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS
EXPAND/OVERSPREAD THE DISCUSSION AREA. WHILE WW IS NOT
IMMINENT...WE WILL MONITOR HEATING/DESTABILIZATION /AND ANY
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/ ACROSS THE AREA WHICH
COULD EVENTUALLY WARRANT WW CONSIDERATION.
..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/26/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...
ARX...
LAT...LON 44409006 45628916 46458787 45918442 44478305 43728397
42378629 41118865 42068927 42859013 44409006
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