ACUS11 KWNS 140000
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1399
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL/SERN IL...WRN/CNTRL INDIANA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 413...
VALID 132359Z - 140130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 413 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ALL SVR HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS
ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 413. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED
LINES REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...AND A NEW TORNADO
WATCH IS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL INDIANA AND SERN IL.
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS SEVERAL AREAS OF STRONG TO
LIKELY SVR TSTMS ONGOING WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 413. AN EXCEPTIONALLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE...WITH LOWER 90S SFC TEMPERATURES
AMIDST UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS LIKELY YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF
4000-5000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING AND NEWLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION...AND
TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
ACROSS N-CNTRL AND E-CNTRL IL INTO WRN INDIANA.
WITH LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOWING AN ARCING AREA OF NEW TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM SW OF THE CHICAGO AREA INTO FAR WRN INDIANA...AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS ENTERING WRN PORTIONS OF IL...CURRENT EXPECTATION
IS THAT ONE OR MORE AREAS OF UPSCALE GROWTH WILL OCCUR INTO AN
ORGANIZED LINE VIA MERGERS/INTERACTIONS. DMGG WIND THREAT /WITH
ISOLATED SIG WIND POSSIBLE/ WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...AND COULD EXTEND S/E OF TORNADO WATCH 413 INTO ADDITIONAL
PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL INDIANA AND SERN IL. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY
REQUIRE A NEW TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 07/13/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MKX...
LSX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 41288636 40268536 38978556 37728725 37658811 38428857
39448942 40169147 40219151 41419148 42299136 42649112
42689090 42438636 41288636
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