ACUS11 KWNS 130850
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI THROUGH NRN IL AND NWRN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 130849Z - 131045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH SRN WI AND NRN
IL EARLY THIS MORNING. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A
WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM SRN IND THROUGH NERN IL INTO SCNTRL WI WHERE IT INTERSECTS A
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM
NERN WI SWWD THROUGH SWRN WI AND IS MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 35-40 KT.
THE STRONGER STORMS WITHIN THIS LINE ARE OVER SCNTRL WI WHERE
NUMEROUS MERGERS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN STORMS WITHIN THE LINE AND
STORMS DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THE INTERACTION OF A SWLY LLJ AND THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LINE SEWD ALONG INSTABILITY
GRADIENT NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE /1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE/ OVER NRN IL. CURRENT VWP FROM
CHICAGO INDICATES MODEST /20-30 KT/ WINDS IN THE 1-4 KM LAYER.
HOWEVER...A BELT OF 35-45 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS WITHIN THE BASE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
EWD INTO NRN IL THIS MORNING WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE STORMS WITHIN THE LINE REMAIN
SEVERE...AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL ACTIVITY COULD BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OR AT LEAST MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD.
..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 07/13/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...MKX...
LAT...LON 42838955 42988817 41568661 40868669 40538799 41758906
42838955
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