ACUS11 KWNS 171731
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST MON FEB 17 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL TO WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 171730Z - 172230Z
SUMMARY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WI...MUCH OF
NORTHERN/PARTS OF CENTRAL IL INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...INTO
NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW...RATES WILL EXCEED 1+ IN/HR FOR A COUPLE HOUR
DURATION. ADDITIONALLY...SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND MIXED WINTER
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL IL INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA.
DISCUSSION...A PROGRESSIVE/MODESTLY AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE STEADILY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PROGRESSION OF
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DPVA/WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER
JET EXIT REGION INDUCED DIVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL EASTWARD
SPREAD OF RELATIVELY STRONG UVV ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/LOWER MI AND THE
NORTHERN HALVES OF IL/INDIANA. SIMILAR TO 12Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS...REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY REFLECT AMPLE UVV
COINCIDENT WITH A SATURATED MID-LEVEL DENDRITIC LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF
MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW FOR A MULTI-HOUR
DURATION...PARTICULARLY GIVEN INFLUENCES OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF IL/INDIANA.
THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM LINCOLN IL SAMPLED AROUND 60 J/KG OF
MUCAPE BASED ABOVE 700 MB...WITH NEARLY 700 J/KG OF MUCAPE PER 12Z
SPRINGFIELD MO. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER DRY SLOT
AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS SUCH HAS BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY AT CHAMPAIGN IL /KCMI/
AND IS OTHERWISE EVIDENT IN RADAR/LIGHTNING NETWORK DATA ACROSS
CENTRAL/PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL THIS MORNING.
..GUYER.. 02/17/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
ARX...
LAT...LON 40489074 41919066 43709094 44178939 43838810 42988573
42048474 40868573 40168601 39138822 40098940 40489074
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