ACUS11 KWNS 032317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032317
040015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MS...PORTIONS OF FAR SW AL AND FAR ERN LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1...
VALID 032317Z - 040015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 1 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF
TORNADO WATCH 1 THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THREAT MAY LINGER OVER A FEW
COUNTIES IN EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS BEYOND THE 00Z EXPIRATION
TIME...AND A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE REQUIRED DEPENDING ON
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 30 MINUTES OR SO.
DISCUSSION...A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN ONGOING OVER THE
LAST 30 MINUTES OR SO OVER PORTIONS OF E-CENTRAL INTO SRN MS AND
ERN LA. WSR-88D 7KM CAPPI MOSAIC INDICATES DECREASING REFLECTIVITY
CORES AND LIGHTNING TRENDS HAVE ALSO BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE HAS BEEN MORE OF A NORTHERLY PUSH OF INDIVIDUAL
CELLS ALONG THE LINE...LEADING TO TRAINING AND PERHAPS A TRANSITION
TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BUT...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE /MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ AND WARM DOWNSTREAM TEMPERATURES
JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG...VERTICALLY VEERING LOW/MID LEVEL WIND
PROFILES COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME STORM ROTATION WITH A BRIEF
TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST STILL POSSIBLE. WHILE THE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE WATCH FROM ERN LA INTO ADJACENT
PARTS OF SRN MS...A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LAUDERDALE...CLARK...JONES /WFO JAN/ AND WAYNE /WFO MOB/ COUNTIES IN
MS. ADDITIONALLY...A DOWNSTREAM WATCH INTO PORTIONS OF SRN AL IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 01/03/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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