ACUS11 KWNS 202006
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NERN IL...ERN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 202005Z - 202200Z
CORRECTED FOR WATCH PROB
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN WI...WITH OTHER
STORMS FORMING TO THE SW INTO IA. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH PLACEMENT.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD OVER SRN
WI IN THE PLUME OF STEEPER LOWER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 60S F. THIS AREA IS NEAR A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH...WITH CONVERGENCE BEING ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE.
MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A FAVORABLY LONG HODOGRAPH. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK...THE HODOGRAPH STILL FAVORS A RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL.
SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS CU BEGINNING TO FILL IN SWWD INTO IA WITHIN THE
AXIS OF DILATATION. CONTINUED HEATING IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BREAK THE CAP AND RESULT IN SEVERAL STORMS CAPABLE MAINLY OF HAIL.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SIG HAIL POTENTIAL IS WHETHER STORMS
WILL DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS DESPITE THE RATHER WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT...OR MORE TOWARD MULTICELLS...IN
WHICH CASE THE HAIL COULD STILL BE LARGE BUT NO GREATER THAN ABOUT
GOLF BALL.
..JEWELL/HART.. 05/20/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 43588734 42878726 42538750 42258850 41988986 41829147
42099226 42369206 42709080 43268918 43638821 43758788
43748748 43588734
WWWW
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