ACUS11 KWNS 121451
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI...NRN IL AND LAKE MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 121451Z - 121615Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS SERN WI AND NRN IL. THE THREAT SHOULD AFFECT THE
MILWAUKEE AND CHICAGO AREAS IN A FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOWS A SHORT LINE
SEGMENT IN SWRN WI. A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF
THE LINE EXTENDING NWD INTO SCNTRL WI WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
MID 60S F AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 100O TO 1500 J/KG RANGE.
THE WSR-88D VWP AT MILWAUKEE SHOWS 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH 30-40
KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE
THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS SRN WI AND FAR NRN IL LATE THIS
MORNING. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE
ACTIVITY.
..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/12/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 41518987 41128936 41038864 41218774 41918712 42768691
43438696 43848736 43978826 43958948 43498996 42868995
42319003 41959000 41518987
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