ACUS11 KWNS 112209
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0567
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHERN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 141...144...
VALID 112209Z - 112315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
141...144...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SPREADS ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL
INTO NWRN INDIANA THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF LONG-LIVED MCS HAVE PROGRESSED INTO WI/IL
WITH WEAKENING MCV OCCLUDING OVER JUNEAU COUNTY WI. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS AHEAD OF MCS
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND SHOULD REMAIN CONCENTRATED ALONG A CORRIDOR
FROM EXTREME SERN IA...ENEWD TOWARD SRN LAKE MI. PRIMARY STORM MODE
IS MULTI-CELLULAR IN NATURE AND LARGE HAIL IS THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT.
A FEW SUPERCELLS REMAIN ALONG SWRN FLANK OF THIS LARGER COMPLEX
ACROSS SERN IA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SFC BOUNDARY. TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY.
WITH TIME SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO
NRN INDIANA. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACROSS
THIS REGION AND CONVECTION MAY NOT MAINTAIN ITS ORGANIZATION...THUS
THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS ACROSS THIS
REGION.
..DARROW.. 05/11/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 41029248 41868935 42778902 42798796 41368705 40638826
40519188 41029248
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