ACUS11 KWNS 210627
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA...FAR NRN MO...NRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 210627Z - 210800Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FROM SRN
IA ENEWD ACROSS NRN IL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE THREAT
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM NEAR THE MO-IA STATE LINE ENEWD TO NEAR CHICAGO IL.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED BY THE RAP-V2. MUCAPE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1500
J/KG BUT A SHARP SFC INVERSION IS IN PLACE WHICH IS MAKING THE
CONVECTION ELEVATED. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY...LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP MAINLY FROM THE SFC TROUGH SWD. THIS ALONG WITH ABOUT 40
KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SEVERE HAILSTORMS. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 05/21/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 41138906 40369250 40209345 40219421 40289491 40559504
40819487 41259352 42239044 42368778 41638742 41318790
41138906
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