AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 100236Z - 100400Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
FROM W TO E ACROSS SRN WI TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL...BUT THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WW.
DISCUSSION...BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 850 MB EXTENDS FROM NERN IA INTO
CNTRL PORTIONS OF LOWER MI. WAA IS INCREASING WITHIN THIS ZONE IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLY JET OVER IL. MEANWHILE...A
COLD/STABLE AIRMASS EXISTS NEAR THE SURFACE...WHILE WARM/MOIST NOSE
IS CENTERED BETWEEN 850-700 MB...WHICH IS SUPPORTING MUCAPE VALUES
FROM 500 TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER SRN WI. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ASCENT
AND BUOYANCY FOCUSED OVER THE AREA...IN ADDITION TO STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-60 KT...A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
..GARNER/HART.. 04/10/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 43019140 43869127 44119024 43968781 43168738 42528778
42388842 42439062 43019140
