AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN AR AND
SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO IL/NORTHERN INDIANA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 89...90...
VALID 102309Z - 110045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 89...90...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE MAY FURTHER INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM EAST-CENTRAL
AR/SOUTHEAST MO INTO SOUTHERN IL. TORNADO WATCHES 89/90 CONTINUE
UNTIL 02Z.
ALSO...TO THE NORTH OF TORNADO WATCH 90...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS
BEING CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MO INTO IL/NORTHERN
INDIANA...WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND BEING POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO OCCUR
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF AR INTO SOUTHEAST MO/FAR SOUTHERN IL...ESPECIALLY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A GRADUALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATING
EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MORE LINEAR/QLCS CONVECTIVE
MODE. AS OF 22Z...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF 3-4MB/2HR ARE MAXIMIZED
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AR INTO SOUTHEAST MO/FAR SOUTHWEST
IL...COINCIDENT WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING TO BACK TO
SOUTHEASTERLY /AND REMAIN STRONG/. ACCORDINGLY...THE STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
EAST-CENTRAL AR INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MO...WITH THE WSR-88D VWP FROM
LITTLE ROCK INDICATIVE OF 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 350 M2/S2. THIS WILL
REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ROTATING STORMS/TORNADOES...PERHAPS
EVEN AN ISOLATED STRONG EVENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
/THROUGH EARLY EVENING/.
A FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ANTICIPATED
TOWARD/AFTER DARK...WHICH WILL ONLY FURTHER BOOST THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD/ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL SRH ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MO/SOUTHERN IL AND ADJACENT FAR WESTERN KY/TN. TOWARD/BEYOND
02Z...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF THIS SAME REGION.
FARTHER NORTH...A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR
ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL/NORTHERN
INDIANA...WITH SEVERE WIND/HAIL BEING POSSIBLE NEAR/NORTH OF THE
SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT /0.5 KM AGL PER LINCOLN IL WSR-88D VWP/.
..GUYER.. 04/10/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...
SGF...SHV...
LAT...LON 33069277 34999284 37369223 40009088 41228666 40988509
40008868 38758867 38098809 34259071 33069277
