AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CENTRAL IL/WRN INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 170144Z - 170345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONTINUED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INCREASE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SRN AND CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT WRN INDIANA...THOUGH LIMITED HAIL
THREAT ANTICIPATED SUGGESTS WW MAY NOT BE REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS STORMS INCREASING ATTM N OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT...ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT WRN INDIANA.
THE INCREASE IS ONGOING AS A RESULT OF INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET. WHILE CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIND THAT THE COMBINATION OF
SOMEWHAT LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE /LESS THAN 1500 J/KG/ AND MODEST
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM INTENSITY.
THUS...WHILE SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY...ANY EXCEEDANCE OF SEVERE
CRITERIA SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND ISOLATED. THUS...ATTM IT APPEARS
THAT A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NECESSARY.
..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 04/17/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38728707 38068816 37838964 38569049 39249081 40148931
40678684 40048622 38728707
