AREAS AFFECTED...SW MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 171726Z - 171830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE A MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST AND SOME SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING UPSTREAM ACROSS NRN IL
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E/NE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SW
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
ELEVATED GIVEN COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WELL TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER CELLS. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-10 TO -15 C AT 500 MB/ MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SMALL HAIL PRODUCTION. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW THAT A WW DOWNSTREAM OF SEVERE WATCH 113 IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN/KERR.. 04/17/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...
LAT...LON 42468783 42828764 43128644 43118530 42858439 42438422
42018421 41748438 41658488 41678581 41668725 41748759
42468783
