AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO/SRN IA INTO NRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 171349Z - 171445Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE INITIAL THREAT WITH ONGOING
STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM FAR NERN KS THROUGH FAR NRN MO...SRN
IA TO NRN IL. CONCERN EXISTS FOR A POTENTIAL THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS DEVELOPING ENEWD ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA INTO NRN IL THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WW MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...AT 1330Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BAND OF
TSTMS EXTENDING FROM FAR NERN KS THROUGH FAR NRN MO...SRN IA INTO
PARTS OF NRN IL. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WELL NORTH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH BISECTED OK FROM SW-NE AND THEN ENEWD
ACROSS SRN MO. 12Z SOUNDINGS INVOF OF THIS ACTIVITY SUGGESTS THE
STORMS ARE LIKELY ROOTED BETWEEN 850-900 MB AND SUPPORTED BY A 50 KT
SWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO ERN KS TO NRN MO PROVIDING A FEED OF MUCAPES
UP TO 2000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
ALTHOUGH CURRENT TSTMS ARE ELEVATED POSING MAINLY A HAIL
THREAT...WIND PROFILERS IN SRN KS AND VWP DATA IN NERN KS/NWRN MO
SUGGEST THE INVERSION IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...THOUGH DEEPER ACROSS NRN
IL. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA...HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS REGION AS
THE WRN LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AND ANY LEAD MIDLEVEL IMPULSES/
SPEED MAXES SUGGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS. AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF GREATER STORM
ORGANIZATION/CLUSTERS FORM AS SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
INITIATING BOUNDARY SUPPORT LINEAR STRUCTURES.
..PETERS/KERR.. 04/17/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 40119530 40899468 41519192 41918948 41568813 40478789
39578923 39429180 39349465 40119530
