Thursday, May 3, 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 22:30:15.8020485

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL INTO FAR NWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233...

VALID 040329Z - 040430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NERN EXTENT OF
WW 233 FROM COOK COUNTY IL EWD INTO FAR NWRN IND AND ALONG THE
ADJACENT FAR SRN EXTENT OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...A LARGE
CLUSTER OF TSTMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SERN IA INTO NWRN IL...IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE E/SEWD ACROSS NRN IL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AFFECTING
THE W/SW PART OF WW 233 BETWEEN 0330-05Z.

DISCUSSION...AT 03Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED
GENERALLY WWD FROM FAR SERN LOWER MI/NWRN OH THROUGH NRN IND...NRN
IL TO EAST CENTRAL/SERN IA. IR IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXPANDING AREA OF
COLD CLOUD TOPS ATTENDANT TO THE TSTM COMPLEX LOCATED OVER ERN/SERN
IA INTO NWRN IL PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. A 30 KT SWLY LLJ
EXTENDING FROM OK THROUGH THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO IL WILL MAINTAIN A
FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LARGE
COMPLEX OVER ERN/SERN IA AND NWRN IL. GIVEN NEW DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS TSTM CLUSTER AND
STORM MOTIONS TOWARD THE ESE...THEN OVERALL SVR WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LOW OVER FAR NRN IL WHICH SUPPORTED THE REMOVAL OF
THOSE COUNTIES FROM THIS WW.

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
SUGGEST HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
THROUGH 05Z.

..PETERS.. 05/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41828961 41918890 42118890 42148775 42118695 40938691
40558715 40418813 40478838 40878895 41208916 41558918
41628965 41828961