AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...WRN/NRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 061822Z - 061915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ALONG AN OUTFLOW/FRONTAL ZONE THAT STRETCHES FROM NRN IL INTO NRN MO
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 3000-4000 J/KG ACROSS MO
INTO CNTRL IL. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...IT APPEARS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ALONG AN EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL ZONE THAT STRETCHES FROM
NRN IL...INTO NRN MO. RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS ZONE
JUST EAST OF MCI AND EAST OF MLI SUGGEST A MORE FAVORABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS. WITH AN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR CU FIELD
IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH A SUBSEQUENT
ESEWD MOVEMENT OFF THE BOUNDARY INTO A VERY BUOYANT AIRMASS. LARGE
HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ALONG
THE NRN OUTFLOW ACROSS NRN IL SHEAR PROFILES ARE A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
HOWEVER HAIL/WINDS SHOULD PROVE THE DOMINANT THREAT.
..DARROW.. 05/06/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38999401 41338976 41628779 40518836 38199329 38999401
