Thursday, May 3, 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 14:53:59.5310261

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NRN IL...SRN LAKE MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230...

VALID 031953Z - 032100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF WW230.

DISCUSSION...TRANSITORY MCV HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS SRN WI AND HAS
LOST ITS IDENTITY OVER CNTRL LAKE MI. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIL SWWD ACROSS CNTRL LAKE MI AND SRN
WI. GIVEN THE DEEP SWLY FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME AIR MASS RECOVERY INTO THE SWRN FLANK OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS TREND WITH NEW
UPDRAFTS FORMING ACROSS SCNTRL WI. NEW TSTMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
ACROSS SRN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT
EXPECTED TO TRAIL CURRENT ACTIVITY. WITH TIME NEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP INTO NRN IL AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DEEPENS.

..DARROW.. 05/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON 43738952 43318654 41428652 41858952 43738952