AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA / NRN IL / SRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151951Z - 152045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLD-WIDELY SCTD STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 21-00Z. SOME
RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT WILL SEEMINGLY BE LIMITED BY QUALITY OF MOISTURE /LACK
THEREOF/...RENDERING THE PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE LOWER THAN
PERCEIVED EARLIER. THE SLIGHT RISK WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A SEE TEXT
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE UPCOMING 20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUMPING CU FIELD
ALONG THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30 MI N DSM INTO NERN IA. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS YIELDED TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 80S AND 40-50 DEG TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. OF
NOTE...VARIOUS MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
REGARDING THE QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
OBSERVED GPS PW/S IN FAR ERN IA NEAR THE IL BORDER AND OVER NERN IA
/0.4 TO 0.5 INCH --RESPECTIVELY/...ARE 0.25-0.5 INCH LOWER THAN
VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODELS. AS SUCH...UPDRAFTS WILL SEEMINGLY BE
INHIBITED TO A DEGREE BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...DESPITE FRONTAL
FORCING AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY /A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE/...STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD...YIELDING PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS.
..SMITH/HART.. 05/15/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 42109250 43398888 42788802 41838802 40979204 41349268
42109250
