AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL IA...NRN IL...SERN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152158Z - 152300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH STRONGER TSTM CORES THIS
EVENING FROM SRN WI...ACROSS NRN IL INTO SERN IA.
DISCUSSION...STRONG SUNSHINE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM SERN IA INTO SRN WI. SFC
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS THIS REGION
BUT DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED AS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DEEPENED. MODEL
FORECAST DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE AT LEAST 10 DEG F TOO
HIGH BUT NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH
BASED CONVECTION WITH BASES LIKELY NEAR 700 MB. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK...GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IT WOULD
SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT GUSTY WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH STRONGER CORES.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS DOWNBURST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
SUB-SEVERE AND A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 05/15/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 42099176 43318870 43008741 42258795 41569118 42099176
