AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN IA...SRN WI...NRN IL
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 261131Z - 261300Z
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY WEAKENING IN
INTENSITY...BUT SOME MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NCEP SREF...MAY
BE A BIT QUICK WITH DIMINISHMENT/DISSIPATION OF ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. THE TRAILING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE/ CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SHIFTING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST IOWA...LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 14-15Z. THIS MAY CONTINUE
TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID MORNING. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...
BUT PERSISTENT/TRAINING STORMS...IN A NEAR SATURATED ENVIRONMENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...COULD STILL YIELD
HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN A CORRIDOR WEST SOUTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH OF MADISON...INTO LAKE MICHIGAN COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN
CHICAGO AND MILWAUKEE.
..KERR.. 05/26/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 43299010 43048884 42888770 42508763 42168847 42338906
42639018 42749126 43299010
