AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA / NWRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 061340Z - 061445Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOWING
MCS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 1330Z...DMX RADAR SHOWED A BOWING MCS FROM DALLAS
AND POLK COUNTIES SWD TO CLARK AND DECATUR COUNTIES WITH SYSTEM
MOVING EWD AT AROUND 35 KT. ON IT/S CURRENT TRACK...IT WILL MOVE E
OF WW 255 BY ABOUT 1430Z. 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
BOW IS SITUATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONT
WHICH EXTENDS EWD INTO CNTRL IL. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX
REVEALED A NEAR-GROUND STABLE LAYER...BUT A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MUCAPE VALUES
ESTIMATED UPWARDS OF 4000-5000 J/KG.
DAYTIME HEATING DOWNSTREAM FROM MCS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY MORE ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING.
AND WHILE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF AN
ORGANIZED SYSTEM...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND GROWING COLD POOL
SHOULD ALLOW THE BOW TO FURTHER EVOLVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
..MEAD.. 05/06/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41889227 42159185 42089049 41858980 41368901 40648909
40178962 40159026 40259094 40439157 40609208 41889227
